Preparation and Application of Prospective Risk Map of Dengue Fever

Tuan Yen-Chang1, Chi Chin-Sheng2, Shih Wen-Yi3, Hung Min-Nan1, Liu Hsiao-Mei2,Huang Chi-Chuan1, Chang Chao-Ching4,Lin Li-Jen1

2011 Vol.27 NO.17

Correspondence Author: Tuan Yen-Chang


The endemic dengue fever cases in 754 villages and neighborhoods in Tainan City and Tainan County from 2006 to 2010 were collected and analyzed for risk scores. Four risk levels: low, medium, secondary and primary high risk areas, were categorized by total risk scores within 5 years. Among all villages/neighborhoods, 527 (69.9%) were low risk areas, 127 (16.8%) were medium risk areas and 100 (13.3%) were high risk areas. The accumulation of risk scores within 5 years was believed to be associated to which of the next year and certain level of prediction was possible. Risk map prepared based on risk level may be re-edited with the disease situation within 5 years. As for risk map application, the establishment of common risk management area is one of the purposes. The 100 high risk villages/neighborhoods were divided into 15 common risk management areas for disease prevention resources allocation and zone defense when outbreak occurs. Secondly, regular monitoring map can be planned. Take “Tien-Ho common risk management area” for example, all environmental and ecological items were monitored and were marked on this regular monitoring map for dengue fever vector monitoring. Reservoir elimination and container reduction should be proceeded when the mosquito vector density increased.